What C.A.R. projects for 2027
The California Association of REALTORS® baseline forecast calls for 277,900 existing single-family home resales in 2027, a 3.7% increase from its projected 2026 pace of 268,100. C.A.R. projects that 2026 sales will finish 1.1% below the 271,100 homes sold in 2025.
C.A.R. forecasts a statewide median home price of $894,400 in 2027, 1.4% above its projected 2026 median of $882,200. Its affordability index is forecast at 20% in both 2026 and 2027, meaning C.A.R. estimates one in five California households can afford the statewide median-priced home under its methodology.
The financing assumption deserves attention
C.A.R. assumes an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.6% in 2027. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported a 7.40% national weekly average on October 8, 2026, up from 7.28% one week earlier and 7.03% on September 24.
The comparison is not a contradiction: one figure is a forecast annual average and the other is a measured weekly national average. It does show why buyers, sellers, and developers should stress-test affordability and exit assumptions at more than one interest rate instead of treating a baseline forecast as guaranteed financing conditions.
Measured facts versus forecast interpretation
The 2027 sales, price, affordability, employment, inflation, and mortgage-rate figures are projections. They may change as economic conditions, inventory, insurance costs, credit markets, construction activity, and consumer confidence change. The Freddie Mac rate is measured from qualifying conventional single-family mortgage applications submitted through its Loan Product Advisor during the survey week.
A reasonable interpretation is that C.A.R. expects a gradual statewide recovery rather than a boom: more transactions, limited price appreciation, and no projected affordability gain. That interpretation should not be converted into a price target for a city, neighborhood, or parcel without local evidence.
What the forecast may mean for land and development
A modest increase in statewide resale activity could support more buyer movement and improve transaction volume, but development land responds to a different set of economics. Finished-home absorption, construction and infrastructure costs, entitlement timing, impact fees, utility capacity, insurance, financing structure, and the residual value of the site can matter more than the statewide median home price.
Builders and land buyers should model downside, baseline, and upside cases for sales pace, finished-home pricing, interest expense, carrying time, and required margin. Sellers can strengthen a land offering with verified jurisdiction, zoning references, legal access, utility information, known studies, and clearly sourced hazard screening rather than relying on a statewide forecast headline.
Parcel-level due diligence still controls
Before committing funds, confirm the APN and governing jurisdiction, then review zoning and general-plan references, mapped flood and wildfire hazards, slope, soils, access, easements, utility availability, water and wastewater constraints, permit history, and applicable planning contacts. Compare the intended use with current official rules and qualified professional advice.
Parcel Peak is an informational first-pass screening tool, not a survey, appraisal, title report, engineering study, environmental review, lending decision, insurance determination, or legal opinion. Material findings should be verified with the controlling agency and the appropriate licensed professional before contingencies are removed or funds are committed.
Source-date note
C.A.R.'s 2026 news-release index lists this forecast under October 7, while the forecast page itself displays 'FOR RELEASE October 7, 2027.' Because that page is filed in the 2026 release archive, discusses projected 2026 results, and forecasts 2027, Parcel Peak treats it as an October 2026 publication but preserves this discrepancy here rather than silently correcting the source.